1. Similarities to the long-term decline after the financial crisis
1) a protracted rise in housing prices
: The market was feeling tired. It's like a slap on the face when you want to cry.
The upward trend from 2000 to 2008 before the 2008 financial crisis broke out
It has soared for the eighth consecutive year since the turnaround in 2014.
2) Real estate regulations put pressure on the market
At the end of the Roh Moo Hyunn regime before 2008, the ceiling on the sale price, the disclosure system of the sale price, and the expansion of regulations on mortgage loans were introduced
The Moon Jae Inn government recently announced 26 real estate measures, introduced a ceiling on the sale price, and introduced expanded loan regulations such as reducing loans for high-priced apartments
How far down in the past?
The rate of decline in apartment prices in Seoul until 2012, when the decline was at its peak
- Based on the Real Estate 114 Index: -7.5%
- KB Kookmin Bank Index: -4.7%
- The actual transaction price of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is -9%
However, the above figure was only average, and the decline in reconstruction in Gangnam was significant at the time. Eunma Apartment, which was a symbol of reconstruction in Gangnam, fell 30% from the highest price, and Gaepo Jugong Complex 3 also fell -27%.
Similar to the past financial crisis, Seoul is expected to fall by an average of around 10% and reconstruction is expected to fall by about 20-30% (?!)
2. A subtle difference: interest rates
Pre-crisis benchmark interest rate 5.25%
It has fallen to 2.0% since the financial crisis
Since then, it has rebounded to 3.25%, but it has slowly risen
Pre-COVID-19 0.25% level of zero interest rate
It jumped to 2.5% in a year
Currently, the mixed interest rate for mortgage loans is around 6%.
If you raise the top of the U.S. benchmark interest rate to around 4 percent,
Domestic mortgage loans can rise to the 8% level.
3. Differences from the existing 광명셔츠룸 financial crisis.
The biggest difference is lack of supply, high charter rates
At that time, there were about 165,000 unsold houses after completion, 27,000 households in the Seoul metropolitan area, and now? About 4,000 households in the Seoul metropolitan area. Less than 1,000 households except it doesn't even look like an apartment.
The amount of moving in next year will also be around 20,000 households. Even in the 2010s, the number of households moving into Seoul was around 30,000 to 30,000 every year.
The jeonse rate is 38% based on the existing financial crisis, and is currently 54%. Of course, there is an opinion that perfect comparison is difficult because there was no lease loan system as it is now during the existing financial crisis. If you think that the highest point is 64% when there is no jeonse loan and up to 75% when there is a jeonse loan, there is about a 10% difference. Comparison is possible for consideration
If the jeonse price persists at the 50% level, it could put more weight on the short-term adjustment theory, not the trend decline.
3. What is different from the previous financial crisis explained in .
I was going to explain more about the parts
Thank you for telling me everything I wanted to say
There is an image, so I replace it.
1) the pitfalls of real estate statistics
2) Historical Cases of Unsold
3) Unexpected points in the decline 구로셔츠룸 since the past financial crisis.
4) The real cause of the long-term decline after the financial crisis (oversupply)
5) Policy and Supply Prospects for 1st New Town / 3rd New Town
댓글
댓글 쓰기